Comments on: Where Do They Find These Scary Statistics?

By: To Vaccinate or Not to Vaccinate? « Kathy Petersen’s Blog

To Vaccinate or Not to Vaccinate? « Kathy Petersen’s Blog — Mon, 02 Feb 2009 13:29:50 +0000

[...] bite” that vaccines save 33,000 lives per year, which may be quite an overestimate (here is part 1 of a thorough look into the “statistics” behind the number). [...]

By: concerned parent

concerned parent — Sat, 09 Aug 2008 06:28:29 +0000

WM –

Question 7, page 4 of this article contains the Schuchat quote

http://www.webmd.com/news/20080306/vaccine-faq

By: wallacesmum

wallacesmum — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 14:36:31 +0000

CP – could you drop me a citation on the WebMD numbers? I am looking at some more scary stats myself.

By: Jamie

Jamie — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 05:33:11 +0000

I thought this might help.

Chapter 5 of The Pink Book says:

“In the 1920s in the United States, 100-200,000 cases of diphtheria (140-150 cases per 100,000 population) and 13,000–15,000 deaths were reported each year. In 1921, a total of 206,000 cases and 15,520 deaths were reported. The number of cases gradually declined to about 19,000 cases in 1945 (15 per 100,000 population). A more rapid decrease began with the widespread use of toxoid in the late 1940s.”

So the number of cases dropped to at least 19,000 by the time of the vaccine. If we assume a 10% death rate, then that’d only be 1,900 deaths.

By: concerned parent

concerned parent — Mon, 23 Jun 2008 04:47:48 +0000

Thanks for bringing up yet another very important topic. I wanted to make two comments. 1) I have also read the Grob book. Especially relevant to your comment is where Grob quotes the 1977 McKinlay report as follows: “it is estimated that at most 3.5 percent of the total decline in mortality since 1900 could be ascribed to medical measures introduced for the [infectious] diseases considered here. ” Note that the term “medical measures” here refers to both chemotherapeutics (antibiotics) AND prophylactics (vaccines), so the impact of vaccines themselves is even less than 3.5%.

2) The “33,000 deaths prevented” figure has troubled me too. The CNN article of 4/7/08 that you quote was written by Dr. Anne Schuchat of the CDC and clearly states that vaccinating in the first two years of life results in “preventing 33,000 deaths and 14 million illnesses per year.” However, a WebMD article dated 3/6/08 quotes Dr. Schuchat as follows “”For every year’s worth of vaccines we give out,” says Schuchat, “over the life of the people receiving them, we prevent 33,000 deaths and 14 million illnesses” At least WebMD has got the time span correct here: the estimated 33,000 deaths prevented is for the entire life span (presumably 75 years??) of the vaccinated birth cohort, rather than for a one year period. Big difference. Shouldn’t someone inform CNN they’ve misquoted? I don’t think the CDC will. In any case, the CDC is out in full force with their vaccine marketing campaign. I look forward to your future articles on this topic.